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"Canada can, within a positive friendly atmosphere, ask the Chinese government to resolve the Tibetan situation."

Nepal Perspective: Who could avert Sino-Indian War?

August 13, 2009

N. P. Upadhyaya
Telegraph Nepal
August 11, 2009

Kathmandu -- Scene one: Intelligent brains had
already concluded that King Gyanendra’s days were
numbered as the King of Nepal when they learnt
that the Indian machinery had very tactfully
managed a sort of agreement in between the then
agitating seven political parties and the Nepali
Maoists who were by then "guests of the Indian
regime" and residing in New Delhi suburb, NOIDA.

The agitating seven rushed to Delhi under New
Delhi’s summons and signed a 12 point agreement
with the Maoists on November 22, 2005. (The
original draft was in Hindi later translated into
Nepali for the local consumption).

The Indian idea was to cut down the size of the
Nepali Monarch and rule the roost in Nepal
through the effective and smart "use" of the
Maoists. The Indian expectation later assimilated
some two millions of the Indian nationals by
granting them the Nepali Citizenship. Some Hydro
power projects too went into the Indian pockets.
The Maoists willingly served the Indian interests
and paid the Indian debts this way.

Scene two: On February 15, 2006, the American
Ambassador James F. Moriarty at a Rotary
gathering at Hotel Annapurna expressed his grave
concerns over the signing of the 12 point
agreement in between the Maoists and the agitating seven parties.

He said, "Contrary to what the seven parties
claim, the Maoists have brought the political
parties into their sphere of political influence
after signing the said 12 point agreement."

He also lamented that afternoon that King
Gyanendra did not listen to his million dollar
advices wherein he had suggested the King to join
hands with the agitating Seven and face the
Maoists with force. The King was soon to be
penalized for having ignored the American suggestions.

Scene three: The King exceptionally relied on the
performances of his hand-picked foreign minister.
The minister kept the King in dark by saying that
"every thing was under control" to which it was
not in essence. The Minister’s short but secret
trip to Varanashi (under some pretext) brought
the down fall of the Nepali monarchy nearer. In
fact the minister went to Delhi from Varanashi for reasons unknown yet.

Scene four: Even after Girija Prasad Koirala
signed the 12 point agreement in Delhi yet he
sent at least a dozen petitions to the King’s
court seeking the latter’s audience. High placed
sources said then that Koirala made several
efforts to meet the King prior to the signing of
the 12 point agreement. The King exhibited his
arrogance on both the occasions which was
sufficient enough to enrage Koirala and he did
what he was told to do by his Indian mentors and
masters. The King lost a golden opportunity. Had
he met Koirala, at least the Royal institution
could have been saved. (That Koirala still had
some soft corner for the Nepali monarchy in his
heart came to public when at a Biratnagar press
meet Koirala, June 14, 2006, talked of the
likelihood of a baby King for Nepal. (Prachanda
on June 16, 2008, dismissed this Koirala claim in Kathmandu.)

Scene five: By this time March 2006 had already
approached. The agitating seven together with the
Delhi based Maoists in collaboration with the
Indian machinery (South Block plus RAW) had
already charted on how to agitate and take the
people into confidence. Needless to say, Shyam
Saran was the main architect of the "throw Nepal
Monarchy Plan." By the way, the 12 point
agreement had clearly mentioned that Nepal now
will have a ceremonial monarch instead of a
constitutional one. Up to March 2006, the Indian
regime too had the consent that henceforth Nepal
(even after the success of the movement) will
have a ceremonial monarch. Dr. Narayan Khadka use
to tell this in his interviews later when the
institution of the monarchy was dismantled.
However, things changed when the King committed a
simple mistake. We will come to this mistake soon.

Scene six: The movement termed as the People’s
Uprising had already begun by the first week of
April 2006. Since the movement had yet to gain a
different shape and dimension, the King was
confidant that things will soon fizzle out. He
made yet another mistake in his calculation. The
Indian penetration was about to enter into the movement.

Scene seven: It was the third week of April,
2006. Things began deteriorating in Nepal as the
movement took a frightening dimension much to the
chagrin of the ruling monarch. Analyzing the
overall political situation in Nepal as it stood
by April 19, 2009, as reported by the Indian
Ambassador Mukherjee to his masters in Delhi, the
New Delhi machinery sent its special emissary to
Nepal to "convince" the King not to under rate
the momentum of the movement and yield to what the agitators demanded.

Scene eight: Dr. Karan Singh, the international
relations advisor of Indian Congress President
Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, landed in Kathmandu April 20,
2006 morning and straight headed towards the
Royal Palace to see the King in person.

The King greeted Dr. Singh at the Palace.
Accompanying Dr. Singh was Indian foreign
secretary Shyam Saran-the main architect of "Destroy Nepal" plan.

After having informal talks with Dr. Singh and
Mr. Saran, King Gyanendra invited Dr. Singh for a
quiet lunch inside a special room but
deliberately ignored Indian FS Mr. Saran. Mr.
Saran must have felt uneasy. Perhaps it should
have been this reason that Mr. Saran now promised
that he would do away with the entire institution
of the Nepali monarchy. The Himalayan insult that
it was. The King could have invited Saran to the
lunch table. Here the King committed yet another
blunder for which he paid soon.

Scene Nine: Dr. Singh, a close relative of King
Gyanendra perhaps advised the King to heed to the
demands of the agitators and remain as a
constitutional monarch as his late brother did in
the recent past. The King perhaps was positive to
Dr. Singh’s modest advice but yet collected the
courage to speak, in his own words, "I am ready
to yield as per your suggestions but one thing I
must tell you that the Maoists who are now aiding
the seven party agitation will soon overwhelm
Nepal and the politics of this country will
definitely swing their way which may have its own
impact on your security matters as well."

Dr. Karan Singh returned Delhi the next day,
April 21, 2009. He, however, told the media men
at the TIA lounge that "I told the King what I
had to--it is up to the King whether to take up
my suggestions or not--after all he is the King
of Nepal--I can’t press him--I have my limitations."

Scene ten: While Dr. Karan Singh was here in
Kathmandu, what had been agreed upon by the King
and the agitating seven that the King will
restore the dead parliament and in lieu his role
as a ceremonial monarch would continue? Dr. Karan
Singh stood as witness to this secret agreement
which never came to the public. It remains yet a
mystery. No body talks of the signing of such an
agreement. Even the former King has kept this
agreement a secret whose effective use could have
saved his institution. But he preferred silence.

Scene eleven: The movement against the King took
a chaotic dimension perhaps by then the Maoists
have had already penetrated into the uprising.
The Indian media, deliberately sent by an annoyed
and insulted Shyam Saran to Kathmandu to air the
Nepali situation in a much more fabricated
manner, secret parleys in between the King and
the agitating seven began. What was decided after
several talks made in Kathmandu’s secret places
that the King will restore the dead parliament.
The Indian media in effect made the people know
as to what was happening in Nepal then. All the
Indian TV channels were pouncing upon Nepal King.

Scene twelve: The King, as promised restored the
parliament on April 22, 2006, and called upon the
leaders to nominate the prime Minister of their
preference. The Indian Prime Minister applauded
the King’s move and other friendly countries
followed the suit. However, some thing more
dangerous was in the store for the King.

Scene thirteen: A completely angered Shyam Saran
rejected the King’s declaration and immediately
summoned a press conference in his office in New
Delhi and told the Indian media that "the
declaration made by the Nepal King was not
enough--the Indian government is not happy with
what the Nepal King has said in his address."

This encouraged the champions of the movement to
further press the King. A terror like situation
prevailed in Kathmandu. The King yielded and thus avoided human causalities.

Scene fourteen: In a nationally televised
address, King Gyanendra reinstated the old Nepal
House of Representatives on April 24, 2006. The
King called upon the Seven Party Alliance to bear
the responsibility of taking the nation on the
path to national unity and prosperity, while
ensuring permanent peace and safeguarding multiparty democracy.

Scene fifteen: The King lost every thing whatever
he had in his possession. Albeit he was still in the Palace.

Scene sixteen: The country geared up for the
Constituent Assembly polls. Both the Indian
authorities and the international community based
in Kathmandu concluded that since the Maoists
while in the jungles have earned bad names and
thus they predicted or say speculated that the
party of the ex-rebels will at best bag some ten
to fifteen seats. This was not to happen instead
the Maoists emerged as the largest party at time
of the CA polls held April 10, 2008.

Scene seventeen: The emergence of the Maoists as
the largest party after the CA polls shocked many
a brains both within and without. The Maoists
immediately after the polls began exhibiting
their “RED” credentials which was only but
natural. This created panic among the democratic
countries that began thinking on how to cut down
the size of the Maoists. But it had become too late for them.

Scene eighteen: The first session of the
Constituent Assembly body, May 28, 2008, through
a declaration turned Nepal a secular republic.
The Royal institution was abolished though it
survived worth name till June 11, 2008, when the
King himself declared that he was vacating the
Royal Palace on his own. Interestingly, it was
the Indian Parliament Speaker Som Nath Chaterjee
who first greeted the Nepali population for
entering into a republican era. The Greeting
letter, as was rumor, sent to Kathmandu, a week in advance.

Prior to vacating the Royal Palace, the former
King made a very careful and calculated remark.
Look what he says, "I have handed over the Royal
Scepter to the incumbent government for its
continued safety”. What he wanted to say? Keep on guessing.

Scene nineteen: The Maoists finally came to power
on August 15, 2008, when the CA body formally
approved the name of Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the
next Prime Minister of Nepal after Koirala
resigned from his Prime Ministerial post.

August 15 is the day of Indian national
independence. This has some meaning. However,
Dahal was sworn in on August 18, 2008. It was
this day that Koshi River went berserk and
inundated thousands of Nepal and India villages.

Scene Twenty: The bad days for the Indian regime
begin. PM Dahal on August 22, 2008, flew to
Beijing, China to observe the Beijing Olympics.
PM Dahal had already committed a Himalayan
blunder which the Indians can’t tolerate. As a
matter of rule by now, a new Nepal PM must begin
his foreign visit from India. Dahal flew to
Beijing thus leaving the Indian regime to ponder
over whether they picked up the right Nepali
leader or not? The Indians received first high voltage shock here.

Scene twenty one: Later a terrified Dahal
corrected his version and tried to appease India
in his own manner. He then left for India. But
the Indians were yet to believe the Prachanda’s
real credentials. In the mean time, senior Maoist
party leaders increased their hobnob with the
Chinese regime to the extent that sitting defense
minister Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal sneaked into
Tibet twice secretly. Thus the frequent to and
fro of the Nepal Maoist leaders to China jolted
the Indian machinery which perhaps concluded that
they picked up a wrong leader in Nepal to serve their interests.

Scene twenty two: The climax was yet to come.
Shocks after shocks were still in the pipeline
for the Indian establishment. December 3, 2008,
evening, at a comfortable gathering right inside
the Chinese embassy, the visiting Chinese Foreign
Minister, Yang Jiechi thundered that China will
not tolerate any steps from any quarters that
undermine Nepal’s territorial integrity and
sovereignty. This was too much for the Indian
authorities. They concluded that if the Maoists
continued in power for long then it will bode ill
for India and its influence here. The European
countries too toed the Indian line save some
NORDIC nations. By this time the anti-China
protests in Kathmandu had already annoyed China.

Scene twenty three: A disturbed Indian Ambassador
Rakesh Sood met the former King at Soaltee Hotel
on December 9, 2009, 6:30 evening and sought HIS
support on how to lessen the increasing Chinese
influence in Nepal. The former King said, "Don’t
drag me into politics." The Indian annoyance
continued for long as Chinese delegations in
series began arriving Nepal which must have
forced some to pull their hairs in Delhi. The
arrival of Chinese delegations did not stop.
Interestingly, by the end of this month, August,
2009, several Chinese delegations in series are arriving Nepal.

Scene twenty four: Ex-King left for Delhi
February 25, 2009, to attend a marriage ceremony
of one of his close relatives in Orissa, India.
In the mean while, the former King sent a special
packet to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi right from the Delhi
airport wherein the ex-monarch has stated that
things did not go as per the agreement in which
India too remained as a witness. He then left for
Orissa and attended the marriage ceremony. Upon
his return to New Delhi, the former Monarch met
with several Indian leaders who count in Nepali politics.

Scene twenty five: It was the early morning of
March 18, 2009, the King was accorded a Royal
treatment by Mrs. Sonia Gandhi at her official
residence in 10, Jan Path, New Delhi.

After the formal talks the serious talks began in
between the two dignitaries in private.

The probable talks as follows:

Mrs. Gandhi: "I am really very very sorry for all
what happened with you Your Majesty. (She implied
that India did not comply with the agreement
wherein Dr. Singh was himself the witness from the Indian side).

Ex-King: "I too apologize Madame to have hurt the
sentiments of the Indian government." (He perhaps
wanted to hint Mrs. Gandhi that his excessive
hobnob with the Chinese was in effect a wrong
step that he took while in power).

Mrs. Gandhi: Let’s forget the bitter past.

Ex-King: "I would also like to agree with you."

Scene twenty six: Beginning July, 2009, some
Indian defense analysts have been claming that
China will soon attack India much ahead of 2012.
The Indian panic is there for all to see. The
Chinese side too appears determined to face the
Indian threat in case the Indian provocative “war theory” become a reality.

Scene twenty seven: The Indian and the Chinese
preparedness for such an eventuality are there.
Both have increased their vigilance at the
borders that adjoins the Nepalese territories.
Indian military men have approached the
international border in the South of Nepal.
Similarly, the Chinese too have deployed their
RED army close to Nepal border in the North. Any
time soon the RED army can also cross the
international border in the North and come close
to Nepali territories. High placed sources claim
that the advancement of the RED army will depend
on how the Indian military men approach the Nepal border in the South.

Yet, both the countries want to avoid the war for
some understandable reasons as both comprehend
that it would be just a futile exercise. Both
China and India would want a commanding
"mediator" who could convince both not to jump in for a war.

Interestingly, both China and India pin high
hopes on such a political personality in Nepal
who could avert this threat that has begun
hovering large over their skies. The search has already begun.

Both ignored a person who could have come to
their rescue had he been in position or some
status at the moment. But who is HE?

He is former King Gyanendra who could avert this
war by mediating in between the two giant neighbors of Nepal.

The ex-King has hinted in his recent talk with
one Nepali media man that Nepal can benefit from
even the meager support from both India and
China. Perhaps this has some political connotation.

Better late than never, both China and India have
come to realize that the Nepali Royal institution
had ever acted as a "balancer" and its absence
now in Nepal may bring the two giants face to
face as claimed by a self proclaimed India’s
defense analyst, Bharat Barma, who now is a
salaried RAW functionary told to watch Nepal events.

Fresh reports have it that China and India both
are willing to restore the Nepal’s Royal
Institution for their own political interests and
mainly to avert the war that is round the corner
if things were not skillfully managed much ahead of 2012.

But how? This so far has remained a mystery.

The ex-King is all set to make a trip to India by
the end of this year. May be around this time,
India will do some thing in the now sidelined King’s favor.

Keep your fingers crossed.
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